Beren's Blog

Epistemic note: Probably already known or obvious, but this treatment seems clearer to me than the standard treatment in e.g. the FDT paper. [Read More]

Authors note: Roughly correct as far as I know but I’m not a physicist so there certainly might be mistakes or things that I have missed. Obviously extremely speculative about far-future scenarios, but I think this provides an interesting high level ‘timeline of the far future’ to start thinking through.... [Read More]

Recently I have been seeing a number of takes that most Chinese AI progress is dependent upon distillation from closed US models, especially from OpenAI and Anthropic, and that therefore if their access to these models were cut off their progress would cease or substantially slow down. I strongly disagree... [Read More]

Authors note: I originally wrote this poem in the summer of 2013 where I was very inspired by Thomas Babbington Macaulay’s Lays of Ancient Rome and thinking deeply about virtue and historiography. I recently rediscovered this while going through my old computer and wanted to put it up before LLMs... [Read More]

Epistemic Status: Obviously highly speculative. I have no inside information. Opinions lightly held. [Read More]